I'm a Bills fan and trust me you're overestimating them. I hate to be a downer on my own team but trust me after watching them for years I can tell you they'll level out and finish around 7, 8 or 9 wins, not 11. However the Jets look like crap and will probably finish with a similar number of wins. Could actually turn into an interesting race for a Wild Card Spot late in the season between these two.
Other than that your list seems good, Pats had a slip up but they'll bounce back and dominate good teams. Dolphins will be horrid